Avaliação da seca meteorológica e seus impactos na cobertura vegetal e nas águas superficiais na nascente da bacia do rio Little Zab
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5965/223811712342024739%20Palavras-chave:
RDI, MSAVI2, NDWI, Kurdistan, Iraq, IranResumo
A integração de informações sobre incidentes de seca nos processos de planeamento e análise pode ajudar os gestores da terra, da água e urbanos a prepararem-se de forma mais eficaz para os perigos relacionados com a água. Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo avaliar espaço-temporalmente as características da seca a montante da Bacia do Rio Little Zab de 2004 a 2018, combinando vários índices meteorológicos e derivados de satélite para superar as limitações de medição. O Coeficiente de Variação (CV) foi utilizado principalmente para investigar a inconsistência da precipitação em uma escala de tempo anual. O Índice de Seca de Reconhecimento (RDI), o segundo Índice de Vegetação Ajustado ao Solo Modificado (MSAVI2) e o Índice de Água por Diferença Normalizada (NDWI) foram adotados como índices de seca meteorológica, agrícola e hidrológica, respectivamente. Por fim, foi aplicado o teste estatístico Coeficiente de Correlação de Pearson (PCC) para compreender a relação entre as variáveis implementadas. Os resultados exibiram valores de CV moderados (22,4% –28,5%) nos dados anuais de precipitação. Com base nos resultados do RDIst, foi reconhecido um evento substancial de seca extrema a grave no ano hidrológico de 2007-2008 e continuou até 2008-2009 com intensidades inferiores na maioria dos observatórios. Os valores do NDWI mostraram que a área superficial do reservatório de Dukan atingiu as suas extensões mínimas de 133 km2 e 123 km2 em 2008 e 2009, respectivamente. Embora os valores médios do MSAVI2 tenham detectado com competência os incidentes de seca de 2008 e 2009, essas deficiências de precipitação prejudicaram posteriormente a cobertura vegetal em 2010. Houve uma correlação positiva significativa entre precipitação, RDIst, NDWI e valores médios de MSAVI2. Conclui-se que a seca meteorológica na região de pesquisa leva instantaneamente à seca hidrológica, resultando em seca agrícola com um atraso de um ano.
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